It’s 2025, and Ontario wine industry trends are shifting fast. Between rising costs, evolving guest expectations, and Ontario wine regulatory changes, restaurant owners, beverage managers, and producers need to adapt strategically. This month, we break down the biggest trends shaping Ontario’s wine and beverage programs—and what you can do to stay ahead.
Industry Snapshot: What’s Happening in Ontario?
According to Restaurants Canada’s latest Quarterly Report:
- Restaurant, caterer, and bar sales are expected to surpass $100B in 2025, a 3.9% increase over 2024.
- Caterers (4.3%) and quick-service restaurants (4.0%) will see the strongest growth, followed by full-service restaurants (3.8%) and drinking places (1.5%).
- More than 36% of Canadians are eating out less frequently, with Gen X reducing their full-service restaurant visits by 41%.
- A temporary GST/HST tax holiday could drive an additional $1.5B in foodservice sales.
And importantly, the impact of Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian goods is having major ripple affect on Ontario’s alcohol industry and can’t be ignored.
What this means for you:
Understanding Ontario wine industry trends helps restaurants, wineries, and beverage managers navigate shifts in consumer spending habits and anticipate pricing strategies that retain guests.
The No & Low-Alcohol Trend: What It Means for You
The non-alcoholic trend in Ontario is booming—non-alcoholic wines, beers, and spirits are one of the fastest-growing categories at the LCBO, with a 73% YOY sales increase.
What it means for your restaurant:
- Zero-proof cocktail menus are no longer optional—strategic menu placement makes a difference. Studies show 35% of diners order the first item they see, and they spend only 109 seconds scanning a menu before deciding.
- Use bold text, negative space, or top-list placement to highlight low & no-alcohol wine and cocktails, increasing sales without changing inventory.
- Offer low-ABV wine pairings or non-alcoholic flights to maintain check averages while catering to the sober-curious movement.
What it means for Wineries, Cideries, Breweries & Distilleries:
- Is it time to add a zero-proof wine option to your Ontario winery portfolio? If you’re looking to future-proof your offerings it might be the time to explore this category.
- Premium non-alcoholic wines are gaining traction—DTC wine sales in Ontario could benefit from diversifying into this growing category.
- If you offer tastings, consider low-ABV or zero-proof options to attract guests who want the experience without the buzz.
Ontario Alcohol Regulations: What’s Changing?
The Ontario wine regulatory landscape is shifting—beer pricing and taxation are under review, while direct-to-consumer (DTC) wine sales in Ontario remain a challenge.
- DTC wine sales dropped 10% in volume and 5% in value in 2024—the steepest decline since 2010.
- Ontario wineries still rely on LCBO, grocery stores, and on-site sales, with no significant progress on expanding online wine shipping law
- If rules change, restaurants with curated wine lists, sommelier experiences, and exclusive pours will remain competitive.
Key Takeaways:
- Monitor Ontario wine regulatory changes—if DTC expands, restaurant wine programs need differentiation strategies.
- Potential tax hikes in April 2025 could impact wholesale wine pricing and restaurant beverage costs.
Rising Costs & Menu Pricing: How to Stay Profitable
Though inflation is moderating, menu prices in Ontario increased 3.4% in November 2024 compared to the previous year. Guests are price-conscious, but they aren’t spending less—they’re spending differently.
How to protect restaurant wine margins without scaring away guests:
- Mid-tier wine selections: Guests are trading down, but not giving up wine. Offer $50-$75 bottle options.
- Strategic by-the-glass pricing: Encourage premium choices with 3 oz and 5 oz pours, reducing sticker shock while boosting revenue.
- Prix-fixe menus with wine pairings: Increase perceived value while offsetting rising ingredient costs.
What it means for Wineries, Cideries, Breweries & Distilleries:
- Wine subscription boxes and mixed-case bundles could help Ontario wineries tap into affordability-driven sales.
- Offer a mix of classic and experimental flights in tasting rooms—guests want unique experiences that justify pricing.
RTD Cocktails: A Game Changer or a Gimmick?
The Ontario RTD cocktail market grew 17% at the LCBO in 2024. Should restaurants, wineries, cideries, and distilleries capitalize?
✅ Pros:
- Faster service, consistent quality—bartenders can focus on complex drinks while RTDs fill gaps.
- Lower labor costs—reducing prep time for high-volume service.
❌ Cons:
- Guest perception risks—some customers expect handcrafted cocktails.
- Premiumization matters—use proper glassware and garnishes to elevate RTDs.
Pro tip:
If adding RTDs, house-bottle signature cocktails (e.g., barrel-aged Negronis, bottled spritzes) for a high-end feel.
For Wineries, Cideries & Distilleries:
- Canned cocktails and pre-batched bottles are still trending—consider RTD product launches.
- Tasting rooms can benefit from take-home cocktail kits or pre-mixed signature drinks for added revenue.
Wine by the Glass: The Ontario Advantage
The wine by the glass trend is transforming Ontario restaurant wine programs:
- Guests are “drinking up”—choosing quality over quantity.
- The demand for smaller wine bottles increased at the LCBO in 2024, aligning with premium wine-by-the-glass programs.
- Local Ontario wines are gaining traction—with U.S. tariffs affecting imports, guests are more likely to try VQA wines by the glass before committing to a bottle.
How restaurants and bars can take advantage:
- Invest in wine preservation tools (Coravin, nitrogen systems) to offer high-end wines without spoilage.
- Highlight Ontario wines—guests pay more for local wines when featured on by-the-glass menus.
- Encourage tasting flights—small pours boost check averages while keeping guests engaged.
How Wineries, Cideries & Distilleries Can Leverage BTG Trends:
- Push by-the-glass wine sales at partner restaurants—data shows guests prefer sampling before committing to a full bottle.
- Offer rotating limited-time BTG selections in tasting rooms—return customers love variety.
Final Thoughts: Staying Competitive in 2025
The Ontario wine industry trends are evolving fast, but restaurants, wineries, cideries, and breweries that embrace key trends—low & no-alcohol wine, by-the-glass programs, DTC wine sales in Ontario, and RTD cocktail innovation—will be best positioned for success in 2025.
Need help optimizing your beverage strategy?
Whether you’re refining your restaurant wine program, launching a non-alcoholic wine, or improving your by-the-glass pricing strategy, we help Ontario’s beverage professionals stay ahead of the curve. Contact us today to learn more about how we can work together.
