October brought a lot of numbers but the stories behind them matter most. From wage increases and changing drinking habits to booming Ontario wine sales and standout harvest quality, these insights can help guide your holiday and winter planning.
Here’s what’s shaping Ontario’s food and beverage scene right now and what to do next.
Minimum wage climbs 2.3% to $17.60/hour (effective October 1, 2025)
What happened
On October 1, 2025, the general minimum wage in Ontario rose from $17.20 to $17.60 per hour. For restaurants, bars, and cafés that already make only a small profit (often 3-5% of total sales), this increase adds real pressure. Those extra cents per hour multiply quickly across teams, and since most businesses can’t simply raise prices, costs continue to squeeze.
Why it matters
Rising wages layer on top of already rising food and supply costs. Since 2022, food inflation in Canada has climbed by more than 24%, meaning restaurants and wineries are now fighting a two-front cost battle: higher wages and higher food costs.
What to do now
Look at the beverage list first. High-margin offerings, like curated wine flights, by-the-glass programs, or RTD cocktails, can help offset those pressures while offering guests a better experience.
- Focus on high-margin offerings like by-the-glass programs, wine flights, and RTDs can offset costs while enhancing guest experience.
- Streamline operations where possible: consider standard pours, partial automation, or simpler service models.
- Revisit menu formats to increase perceived value rather than just raising prices.
Mod Wine Co. POV
This is the moment to rethink how you serve your guests and, in the face of inevitable price increases, you can turn cost pressure into opportunity. Those who refine their beverage offerings, streamline service, and build real value into the guest experience will protect their bottom line and strengthen loyalty. Use your beverage program as your most strategic asset.
Ontario Craft Wineries Sales Up 78%; Restaurant On-Premise Penetration Accelerates
What happened
In April 2025, Statistics Canada reported that Canada imported just about $2.9 million of U.S. wine. About a 94% drop from the same month the prior year. And in October 2025, Ontario Craft Wineries (OCW) reported that sales across retail and on-premise channels (including grocery, convenience and restaurant listings) have jumped by 78% year-to-date. The lift comes at a crucial moment, with Ontario Chardonnays, Pinot Noirs and other VQA wines increasingly appearing on restaurant wine lists once dominated by California offerings.
Why it matters
This surge in on-premise expansion signals that Ontario producers are no longer just “local curiosities” or discount alternatives. They’re gaining real acceptance alongside established regions and commanding meaningful volume and pricing. For restaurants, bars and wine-bars, that means: better supplier diversification, less risk if one region underperforms, and the chance to offer genuine “Buy Local” stories that resonate with guests looking for authenticity.
What to do now
- Add Ontario VQA selections to your list and highlight their stories and awards.
- Partner with suppliers to identify local wines that perform well and fit your price structure.
- Consider a rotating “Ontario Spotlight” section or flight to spark guest curiosity.
Mod Wine Co. POV
This is a moment for connection. Ontario’s growth isn’t just about sales numbers, it’s about people, stories, and shared pride. Restaurant owners and their teams now have the opportunity, and the responsibility, to bridge that gap between guest and grower. When you pour a local wine, you’re not just serving a product, you’re introducing someone to the land, the maker, and the community behind it.
Toronto Restaurant Real Estate Undergoes Historic Shift; Food & Beverage Now 55% of All Transactions
What happened
According to JLL’s Fall 2025 Canada Retail Market Dynamics report, dining, entertainment and wellness services made up more than half of all new retail-space announcements in the first half of 2025. Notably, food & beverage alone now accounts for 55 % of the leasing deals JLL handles, with dining alone representing over 40% of retail expansion nationally. “Foodertainment” concepts like golf simulators, ping-pong bars, or dart lounges paired with craft menus are driving this growth.
Why it matters
The restaurant ecosystem is being driven by experience-driven concepts. The simple concept of a bar is now less likely to gain traction compared to venues that combine beverage, food and immersive activity. It’s clear that there is a direct link to the experience economy.
What to do now
- Integrate beverages into the overall experience like tastings, cocktail workshops, or thematic flights.
- Use your space intentionally: design service around storytelling and interaction.
- Lean into local or terroir-driven products to create emotional connections through storytellers. These resonate in a time when “experience” is the differentiator.
Mod Wine Co. POV
This is where hospitality and storytelling intersect. The shift toward experience-first concepts isn’t just about keeping guests entertained, it’s about creating meaningful connections. Beverage programs are central to how people experience a space. Even when a drink is poured tableside, paired with an activity, or introduced by name and place it becomes more than a product; it becomes a more intentional part of the experience.
Food & Beverage Manufacturing Forecast Declines 2.5% in 2025; Alcohol Consumption Continues Downward Pressure
What happened
According to the 2025 Farm Credit Canada (FCC) Food & Beverage Report, the beverage-manufacturing sub-sector in Canada is facing a notable slump. Sales are forecast to fall by about 2.5 % in 2025 and volumes are expected to drop by roughly 2.6 %. Meanwhile, the report highlights that alcoholic beverage consumption continues to decline, even as spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages shows signs of recovery.
Why it matters
For producers, restaurants, and bars, this shift is a reality check: people are drinking less alcohol, but they’re drinking better and more intentionally. Growth isn’t happening across the board anymore. It’s happening in the specific demographics of health-conscious drinkers, younger guests looking for lighter or low-alcohol options, and customers willing to spend more on something unique or local. The takeaway? Don’t try to please everyone. Focus on the audiences that actually align with your story and product, and build for them.
What to do now
- Look for products that already fit where demand is growing like low-alcohol wines, functional ingredients, or premium small-batch options.
- Tell better stories. Guests connect with purpose and provenance. Highlight what makes your beverages different, whether it’s local sourcing, sustainable practices, or craftsmanship.
- Design offerings that match how people are drinking now. A light “after-dinner” pour, a curated Ontario VQA flight, or a wine-and-mocktail pairing for groups.
- Talk to each other. Wineries and restaurants are navigating the same shifts, just from different sides of the table. Share insights, compare what guests are asking for, and work together to build value-driven, experience-led offerings instead of chasing volume.
- Focus on products and experiences that bring higher profit and real connection with guests, not just higher volume.
Mod Wine Co. POV
People are changing the way they drink, and that’s not a bad thing. If you pay attention to who you are serving and why you will come out ahead. When your beverage program feels intentional and personal, you create real connection and that’s where the growth is.
Foodservice Industry Adds 23,600 Jobs in 2025; Restaurants Canada Cautions on Underlying Vulnerabilities
What happened
In the first nine months of 2025, Canada’s foodservice industry added approximately 23,600 jobs, according to Restaurants Canada. At the same time, they report that 74% of Canadians say they’re cutting back on non-necessary spending, 56% say they’re dining out less often, and 50% say they’re taking out food less frequently. Commercial foodservice sales for 2025 are forecast to grow about 5.4%, though growth is expected to slow to around 3.6% by 2027.
Why it matters
On the surface, job growth in restaurants might look like the sector is booming but the truth is more complex. Many restaurants are still hiring to replace experienced staff lost during the pandemic or to handle turnover, not because guest numbers or spending are rising sharply. With consumers tightening their budgets, they must extract more value per guest by emphasising premium positioning, upselling thoughtfully, and designing for higher-margin pours and experiences.
What to do now
- Review your beverage list and identify high-value offerings: premium wine glasses, curated flights, unique local pours or experiences that command a higher price.
- Train your team to speak to value, not volume: when a guest chooses a wine or drink, ensure they feel it’s worth it.
- Focus beverage service around “moment” design: think of drinks as part of the guest experience, not just add-ons. Pair wine flights with food, create drinks for special occasions, lean into storytelling.
- Use data to track guest behaviour. Track value-adds, repeat orders, and average spend per head.
Mod Wine Co. POV
This is less about expansion elevating your hospitality drivers. The guests are still coming but they’re choosier, and they expect more.
Toronto Restaurants Embrace Small Plates, Hospitality Experiences, and Local Sourcing
What happened
In October 2025, new restaurant openings showed a clear pattern: lots of small-plate menus, multi-course tasting dinners, and a strong focus on local or heritage ingredients. Across cuisines the setups featured refined portions, artistic plating, and integrated beverage programs. One trend summary calls out that “small plates, big hearts” are becoming luxe again.
Why it matters
Small-plate formats open up more chances for pairing drinks and value-adds. Instead of just one entrée with one glass of wine, you can offer 4-6 wine pairings across a tasting menu, or sequence RTD cocktails in 200 ml formats as part of the larger story. For breweries and wineries, this creates a chance to highlight more SKUs (flavours/labels) and connect them to food experiences. Restos can shift from “one big dish + drink” to “series of small bites + curated beverage journey.”
What to do now
- Update your menu structure: offer tasting menus or progressive dinners where each small plate is paired with a distinct drink (wine, RTD cocktail, beer) and mention the beverage on the plate description.
- For your beverage list: design flights or mini-formats (e.g., three 100-150 ml pours) that match the small-plate rhythm. Highlight Ontario wines, local craft beer or special cocktail mini-formats.
- Collaborate: Producers (wineries, breweries) should create pairing suggestions with small-plate dishes and provide marketing content for venues. Restaurants should lean on these local stories and build their beverage program around them.
- Presentation matters: ensure your serving size, glassware or mini format makes sense for tasting.
- Promote the experience. Use social imagery of plated pairings to drive interest.
Mod Wine Co. POV
This shift isn’t just a chance to create exciting new experiences, it’s also a smart way to collect real feedback on what’s working and what’s not. Smaller menus and small-plate formats give you room to experiment without over-ordering or tying up inventory. It keeps things fresh for guests and lets you test new pairings or concepts in real time. Plus, when you focus on fewer dishes, you can deliver higher quality and more consistency which builds trust. And trust leads to loyalty. The best part? Guests will come back, curious to see what you do next.
Ontario VQA Wines Earn 500+ International Medals; Industry Prestige Peaks
What happened
It was announced this October that over the course of 2025, Ontario’s VQA winemakers pulled in over 500 medals at top-tier global wine competitions like Decanter World Wine Awards, International Wine Challenge and the National Wine Awards of Canada. The breakdown is clear: 14 Platinum, 99 Gold, 125 Silver, and 259 Bronze and 7 Condemned all across a broad range of styles. It’s another clear sign that Ontario’s cool-climate wines can stand confidently beside the best in the world.
Why it matters
This kind of recognition gives Ontario wines a whole new level of credibility. For restaurants and bars, it’s a golden opportunity to feature local wines with pride and to show guests that Ontario bottles deserve a spot next to those from California or France. Adding award-winners to your list, weaving their stories into your menu, or training staff to share what makes them special can all help raise both guest interest and perceived value.
What to do now
- Add medal-winners to your wine list with a short note or “award-winning” callout.
- Encourage your team to tell the story behind the wine, who made it, where it’s from, and why it stood out.
- Update your by-the-glass options to include some of these recognized local wines.
- Create a “Local Heroes” section or tasting flight to highlight Ontario’s global success while boosting check averages.
- Create a “Local Heroes” section or tasting flight to highlight Ontario’s global success while boosting check averages.
Mod Wine Co. POV
We’re entering a new era for Ontario wine. With fewer U.S. bottles on the market and international eyes finally recognizing local quality, Ontario VQA wines are a smart business move. When you share the story behind these wines you build pride, trust, and connection. Champion your local producers.
Harvest 2025: Quality Exceptionally Strong; Yields Lower but Manageable
What happened
As the 2025 grape harvest wraps up in Ontario, all signs point to exceptional quality despite slightly lower yields. Cool nights and sunny days gave the grapes great ripening conditions, while summer heat spikes (multiple days over 35 °C) and low rainfall (many areas getting about a third of normal) cut volumes. Researchers at Cool Climate Oenology & Viticulture Institute (CCOVI) at Brock University confirmed that the slower, cooler ripening is giving more flavour concentration and complexity. This means that the 2025 vintage is going to be potentially excellent.
Why it matters
For producers and F&B venues alike, lower yields + high quality create a structural opportunity. With less volume, the wines you do produce or carry become more exclusive. That means you can justify premium positioning, scarcity messaging and elevated guest experiences. It also gives restaurants and bars a story to tell that can drive guest interest.
What to do now
- Looking ahead, highlight limited-production wines and small-batch releases on your list as special, emphasising the vintage quality and smaller yield.
- If you’re a producer: now is the time to carefully manage inventory, allocate more to your premium lines, and work with your on-premise partners to promote “vintage 2025” as a must-have.
- For restaurants/bars: work with your suppliers to schedule releases.
Mod Wine Co. POV
This harvest is a reminder to keep looking forward. Smaller yields and standout quality mean it’s time for wineries, restaurants, and retailers to start planning together. Think about how much to pour, how to tell the story, and how to make guests part of it. Stay connected, share what’s working, and build experiences that celebrate what makes 2025 unique. Collaboration now will pay off when those bottles hit the table.
Product and Flavor Trends: Experiential and Fusion Focus
October 2025 data shows that consumers continue to prioritize discovery and experience over price when it comes to food and beverage choices. Seasonal products are performing well not because they’re discounted, but because they’re easy to find, visually appealing, and offer a sense of novelty. Platforms like TikTok and Instagram play a major role in shaping purchasing decisions, with eye-catching visuals and simple, replicable ideas driving viral momentum and repeat sales.
Micro-trends are defining the market. Limited-edition items, short-run flavours, and crossover products are becoming standard tools for maintaining relevance and driving short-term sales spikes. Because of their immediate accessibility and “try-it-now” appeal, consumers are more willing to purchase these items even when prices are higher.
In beverages, functional products remain a strong growth category. Energy drinks, collagen-infused sodas, and low-sugar alternatives continue to expand as consumers look for added health benefits and balance in their choices. Non-alcoholic beverages also continue to gain market share, and this growth is projected to accelerate through 2026.
Globally, flavour innovation continues to lean toward authenticity and cultural depth. Dishes and drinks inspired by heritage cuisines are trending upward particularly those featuring spice blends and fusion pairings. For example, birria ramen (a blend of Mexican and Japanese influences) grew 20.3% year-over-year, while sweet-and-spicy (“swicy”) flavour profiles are expanding across categories from candy to RTD cocktails. Social media–driven products like “chaos cakes” and “fluffy Coke” show how novelty and shareability can translate into measurable consumer demand.
The world’s moving fast but when you approach trends with creativity and curiosity, they stop being fleeting moments and start becoming real opportunities. Have fun with flavour and collaborate often.
